Core tip: The business climate monitoring results of the Circulation Branch of the China Textile Industry Federation show that in September 2024, the national textile and clothing professional market managers' business climate index was 53.92, up 0.96 percentage points from the previous month; the business climate index of professional market merchants was 50.76, up 0.69 percentage points from the previous month.

The business climate monitoring results of the Circulation Branch of the China Textile Industry Federation show that in September 2024, the national textile and clothing professional market managers' business climate index was 53.92, up 0.96 percentage points from the previous month; the business climate index of professional market merchants was 50.76, up 0.69 percentage points from the previous month.

1. Managers' and merchants' business sentiment increased slightly

Data show that in September, the national textile and garment professional market managers' prosperity index and merchants' prosperity index both showed a slight increase, and both indexes were above 50.

1. The manager's prosperity index rose by 0.96 percentage points

From the perspective of the manager's prosperity index, in the total index, the manager's prosperity index in September was 53.92, up 0.96 percentage points from the previous month; the business environment index was 55.81, the same as the previous month. Among the sub-indices, the total business index was 53.87, up 0.32 percentage points from the previous month; the logistics shipment index was 53.87, the same as the previous month; the passenger flow index was 56.13, up 2.26 percentage points from the previous month; the door opening rate index was 54.84, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous month; the rental index was 51.29, down 0.65 percentage points from the previous month; and the e-commerce sales index was 53.55, up 0.97 percentage points from the previous month.

2. The business climate index rose by 0.69 percentage points

From the perspective of the merchant prosperity index, in the total index, the merchant prosperity index in September was 50.76, up 0.69 percentage points from the previous month; the operating environment index was 49.80, down 0.83 percentage points from the previous month.

Among the sub-indices, the sales volume index was 50.95, up 0.81 percentage points from the previous month; the average selling price index was 50.88, up 1.58 percentage points from the previous month; the profit index was 50.95, up 1.09 percentage points from the previous month; the comprehensive cost index was 49.93, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the inventory index was 51.29, up 1.29 percentage points from the previous month; and the e-commerce sales index was 50.54, up 0.05 percentage points from the previous month.

2. Data Analysis

1. Market operating performance is stable and growing

In September, 6.45% of the markets saw a decrease in total business volume, down 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; 3.23% of the markets saw a decrease in logistics shipments, down 3.23 percentage points from the previous month. In September, the professional markets ushered in the mid-year peak season, with market opening rates and customer traffic showing an upward trend, driving the overall business performance to continue to grow.

2. Market operation is stable and improving

In September, the peak season of golden autumn, the opening rate of 48.39% of professional markets increased, up 25.81 percentage points from the previous month; the rents of all professional markets either increased or remained the same, and the number of professional markets with falling rents decreased by 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; the passenger flow of 61.29% of professional markets increased, up 19.35 percentage points from the previous month; in September, the market opening rate and passenger flow both achieved sustained growth compared with the previous month, the rental level was basically the same as the previous month, and the market operation was stable with an increase.

3. Merchants' operating performance is stable and improving

In September, 10.88% of the market merchants saw a decrease in total sales, down 7.3 percentage points from the previous month; 10.88% of the market merchants saw a decrease in profits, down 8.7 percentage points from the previous month; and 19.73% of the market merchants saw an increase in sales prices, up 7.84 percentage points from the previous month. The sales volume, profits, and prices of the merchants all achieved sustained growth, and the overall operating performance was stable and improving.

4. Merchant costs and inventory pressures continue to improve

In September, 6.8% of market merchants saw an increase in comprehensive costs, down 0.19 percentage points from the previous month; the inventory of all professional market merchants either decreased or remained the same, and the number of merchants with increased inventory decreased by 10.49 percentage points from the previous month. The comprehensive cost index and inventory index fluctuated slightly, and the cost and inventory situation of merchants continued to improve in September.

5. E-commerce sales increased slightly

In September, 35.48% of professional markets’ e-commerce sales increased, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; 11.56% of merchants’ e-commerce sales increased, up 1.77 percentage points from the previous month; compared with August, e-commerce as a whole grew slightly, with the market e-commerce index rising by 0.97 and the merchant e-commerce index rising by 0.05, and both indices remaining above 50.

3. Prediction Index

The data shows that for managers, the next period manager prosperity index is 55.81, down 0.32 percentage points from the previous month; the next period business environment index is 55.81, the same as the previous month. For merchants, the next period merchant prosperity index is 49.66, down 1.18 percentage points from the previous month; the next period business environment index is 49.66, down 1.18 percentage points from the previous month. Both merchant prosperity indexes are higher than 50, indicating that professional market managers are relatively confident about the business situation in October; both merchant indexes are lower than 50, indicating that professional market merchants are taking a wait-and-see attitude towards the business situation in October.

appendix:

1. Monitoring methods

The "Textile and Clothing Market Climate Index" consists of two parts: the "Manager Index" and the "Merchant Index". Using a sampling method, markets and merchants of different business categories such as clothing, fabrics, home textiles and small commodities were selected nationwide to fill in the manager climate index questionnaire and the merchant climate index questionnaire respectively.

2. Monitoring samples

The manager prosperity sample consists of 31 textile and clothing professional markets, including Guangzhou Baima Clothing Market, Shandong Jimo Clothing Market, Jiangsu Dieshiqiao Home Textile Market, Shanghai Xinqipu Clothing Market, Liaoning Xiliu Clothing Market, etc. The merchant prosperity sample consists of 147 merchants, including Taotao Clothing, Suntory Textile, Weibang Home Textile, and Victoria Cashmere.

3. Monitoring cycle

The business climate monitoring cycle is based on a monthly basis, with reports submitted at the end of each month and released to the public at the beginning of the following month.

4. Index composition

In the "Prosperity Index of Textile and Garment Professional Market", the "Manager Index" consists of four primary indexes: the current period manager prosperity index, the next period manager prosperity index, the current period business environment index, and the next period business environment index; the "Current Period Manager Prosperity Index" consists of six secondary indexes: the total business volume index, the logistics shipment volume index, the passenger flow index, the door opening rate index, the rental index, and the e-commerce sales index. The "Merchant Index" consists of four primary indexes: the current period merchant prosperity index, the next period merchant prosperity index, the current period business environment index, and the next period business environment index; the "Current Period Merchant Prosperity Index" consists of six secondary indexes: the sales volume index, the average selling price index, the profit index, the comprehensive cost index, the inventory index, and the e-commerce sales index.

5. Index analysis

The positive index includes the manager's total operating index, logistics shipment index, passenger flow index, merchant opening rate index, rental index, e-commerce sales ratio index and merchant sales index, average selling price index, profit index, and e-commerce sales ratio index. If the positive index exceeds 50, it means that the business situation is optimistic, and the larger the value, the more optimistic it is; if the positive index is lower than 50, it means that the business situation is not optimistic; the smaller the value, the more pessimistic it is. The negative index includes the merchant cost index and inventory index. If the cost index exceeds 50, it means that the merchant's cost pressure is reduced, and the larger the value, the smaller the cost pressure; if the cost index is lower than 50, it means that the merchant's cost pressure is increased, and the smaller the value, the greater the cost pressure. If the inventory index exceeds 50, it means that the merchant's inventory pressure is reduced, and the larger the value, the smaller the inventory pressure; if the inventory index is lower than 50, it means that the merchant's inventory pressure is increased, and the smaller the value, the greater the inventory pressure.